Yet another week of Budget speculation and feverish media reports, but are we beginning to see the shape of the real plans emerging?
An increase in capital gains tax (CGT) is top of mind for advisers, with the majority believing it is one of the most likely announcements in the upcoming Budget, research by Royal London has revealed and again reported in Money Marketing.
There has, of course, been talk that CGT could rise to very high levels. Initially the Guardian reported that both 33% and 39% were being considered.
We would note the Prime Minister Keir Starmer has played down suggestions that CGT will rise to the higher rate as the BBC reports.
There are also reports that CGT could be increased on shares but not on second homes prompting comments from Quilter’s Rachael Griffin, Quilter’s tax and financial planning expert talking to IFA magazine suggests that a more comprehensive reform may have been too complex.
Less pension speculation this week or so it feels, which may be avoided for similar reasons of complexity.
What may be emerging are two arguably less controversial ways (though it's all relative) to close the gap and fill what the Chancellor Rachel Reeves has called a fiscal ‘black hole’ of £22bn.
First it looks likely that the Government will extend the Conservatives’ income tax threshold freeze beyond 2028 bringing in around £7bn a year from 2028 to 2030 as the Telegraph reports.
Looks like neither main party can resist a stealthy way of increasing tax, while we all face more years of fiscal drag.
Second, it also looks as if employers’ national insurance will rise to some degree as the BBC reports.
Employers are resisting the rise as the Guardian reports. On some calculations, it could raise £17bn.
All of this begins to address the black hole or – seriously – what we should really be calling a shortfall. There's no fiscal event horison.
The NI decision has been attacked for breaching a promise not to raise NI though some statements from Labour before the election did come with the qualifier that it would not raise taxes on workers. The BBC considers the matter of whether it is a breach here.
Frankly neither threshold rise nor NI rise – having accepted what now seems like a rather reckless cut in employee NI from the previous administration – feels like good policy. (Other views are available), but perhaps it’s better for advisers than some sort of pension tax relief mayhem.
In other news, advisers’ selection of protection provider changes significantly when considering value and price in line with Consumer Duty regulations, according to latest data from Protection Guru and as Money Marketing reports.
SJP recorded net inflows of £890m in the last quarter, again as Money Marketing reports. Despite recent ructions, it remains a formidable asset gathering machine.
The PFS former President Anthony Ward is leaving the board, prompting the search for another member director. He was expected to extend his term as FTAdviser reports.
Curiouser and curiouser, PFS members may say.
Interesting to see the New Model Adviser editor Jack Gilbert suggest that the FCA review of consolidators look specifically at private equity ownership models.
