There is, of course, an awful human toll. But it does fall to financial professional to consider the economic impact of the war in the Middle East as well. Most of the focus is on energy.
The latest view from Goldman Sachs suggests that oil prices could breach $100 a barrel next week reported in the Guardian. and lots of other national titles. Without resolution, the investment bank argues that prices could reach $150 in the next few weeks.
Reuters looks at the widening impact across energy markets while the Economist notes that a nightmare scenario, long plotted by analysts, of Iran lashing at other Gulf states’ energy infrastructure is now playing out.
It is interesting to see how much energy is now seen impacting other markets. Here are a couple of market views below.
Keep perspective, urges Vanguard, and suggests that essentially it won't pay to panic.
"Importantly, markets appear to be repricing near-term risk rather than signalling a fundamental shift in long-term economic prospects. Markets have responded, but not in a way that suggests fears of a sustained shock to growth.
"Perspective still matters. It’s clear why investors will want to pay attention to these developments: Concerns about escalation and continued spillover are understandable given the region’s place in global oil production and distribution. Although near-term uncertainty is likely to remain high and oil prices may remain volatile, markets tend to recalibrate as scenarios become clearer and extreme outcomes fail to materialize."
Morgan Stanley considers seven impacts in Iran Conflict: Oil Price Impacts and Inflation including “affordability as a key issue in the U.S. midterms”. It writes that “conflict duration matters” and notes that “a Reuters/Ipsos poll reported only about 27% approval for the U.S. strikes, but a short, contained conflict may result in public dissatisfaction fading quickly. A longer episode, however, could keep political attention focused on cost-of-living pressures.”
Domestically, the Independent worries about a renewed cost-of-living crisis and clearly has reasonable grounds to do so.
Investment Week’s Market Movers blog focuses on plummeting job numbers in February in the US. Trump, on this measure, at least does not have a good record.
Away from the global ructions, writing in Money Marketing, Seccl’s chair David Ferguson discussing AI makes this pertinent point -
“AI will reward firms that have invested in clean data and modern infrastructure – those who own and can access their data without friction or dependence on third-party gatekeepers. It will frustrate those attempting to bolt new intelligence onto foundations built for a different era.”
Changes to inheritance tax rules are prompting more grandparents to contribute towards their grandchildren’s university costs, according to advisers, reports FTAdviser.
Mattioli Woods marks International Women’s Day by sharing the stories of five women across its business. The piece focuses on the “investments” that shaped their careers, highlighting mentorship, sponsorship and the day-to-day support that helps talent grow through personal and professional challenges.
IFA Magazine presents the stories.
And this is practical again from IFA Magazine - Dynamic Planner analysis of 9000 advised clients shines a light on where advice can help elevate women’s financial wellbeing.
In the workplace pension world, Aegon calls for a two-year trial period ahead of the Value for Money framework coming into force in 2028, Corporate Adviser reports.
